“New Century Advisors believes that consistent out performance arises from the use of multiple, diversifying, active exposures that are carefully sized in accordance with rigorous risk management.“
Ellen Safir, CFA
Chief Executive Officer & Co-Chief Investment Officer
How We Invest
At New Century Advisors, we believe fixed income markets offer persistent and measurable drivers of risk and return. Our investment philosophy is grounded in understanding and managing exposures to key risk factors: Interest Rates, Inflation, Term Structure, Credit, and Volatility.
We don’t aim for home runs. Instead, we follow a “singles and doubles” philosophy — incrementally building alpha from multiple, uncorrelated sources, while minimizing exposure to any single risk. This approach enables us to add value consistently across market environments. We assess relative value & identify mispricing. Measurement and management of the potential outcomes from exposure to these risks.
We begin by gathering knowledge & assessing expertise across disciplines — drawing from both experts and generalists on our investment team, who collaborate closely on the same trading floor. It’s this integration of diverse approaches that forms the foundation of our investment insight. This collective perspective spans:
Top-Down Macro Economic Views
Technical Factors
Bottom-Up Security Analysis
Insights formed across macro trends, market behavior, and security-level detail guide every step of our investment process, influencing how we identify opportunities, assess relative value, and structure positions within the portfolio.
Idea Generation
- Internal Models & Screens
- External Research
- Global Money Flows
- Team Views
- Periodicals, Blogs, Twitter/X
- Market & Current Events
Fundamental & Relative Value Analysis
- Rates
- Sovereign
- Curve
- Credit
- FX
- Inflation
- Commodities
- Structure
Portfolio Construction & Risk Assessment
- Screen for Diversifying Ideas
- Scenario & Stress Analysis
- Size Position
- Identify Entry/Exit Points
Execution is guided by discipline and risk sensitivity. Though our philosophy is long-term, our structure allows us to move decisively when markets present opportunities — adjusting exposures as needed while staying within a defined risk framework.
Buy
- Upside/Downside asymmetry
- Attractive fix/complement within portfolio
Sell
- Target hit but upside remains
- New information alters rationale or risk profile
- Diversify theme/view
Resize
- Return target/stop achieved
- Change in rationale
- Better way to express the view
How We Engage
Identify Client Objectives:
We begin by having discourse on a client’s investment goals, which could be income generation, inflation protection, capital preservation, hedging other portfolio risks, or another specific objective. We seek guidance on how an NCA strategy would be expected to complement other elements of a client’s broader portfolio.
Define Risk & Constraints:
We work collaboratively to understand and define the investment horizon, tolerance for near term volatility, need for near term liquidity. These conversations help us to recommend a relevant relative return benchmark, if relative return is an objective, and tracking error estimates. Absolute return requirements and variability around that return objective are part of the discussion.
Establish Strategic Allocation:
Strategic positioning is informed by client objectives and constraints, as well as benchmark selection. Benchmark selection gives us a ball park of client preferences.
Identify Tactical Opportunities:
When appropriate, we introduce tactical positions aligned with our house views — evaluated carefully for fit within the client’s portfolio and objectives.
Ongoing Risk Management:
We continuously monitor position-level and portfolio-level risk, using sensitivity and scenario analysis. Diversification and thematic risk limits are maintained, and strategies are regularly reviewed against evolving client needs.
Our Strategies
